continues to grow its services business, which generates revenues at an annual rate of nearly $80 billion and accounts for approximately 20% of the company’s total business. The services – which include everything from Apple Music to the App Store and Apple Pay – are now bigger than the Mac and iPad businesses combined.
Apple (ticker: AAPL) does not detail the contributions of its various service offerings, but Wall Street is always on the lookout for clues. In a pair of research notes on Monday, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee assessed the outlook for two elements of Apple’s services portfolio: music and games.
For music, Chatterjee said he envisions a $55 billion addressable market globally in 2025, with around 900 million total subscribers for the sector. He thinks Apple Music can maintain its No. 2 position in the market after
(SPOT), but adds that some newcomers to the market are increasingly in demand, in particular Amazon Music and YouTube Music, owned by
(GOOGL) Google, respectively. Chatterjee estimated that Apple Music would hit $6.6 billion in annual revenue in 2025, down from $5.2 billion in 2021, with growth slowing to high single digits from double digit growth in recent years.
Chatterjee cited estimates that Apple Music has about 78 million subscribers, compared to Spotify’s premium version of 170 million; there are still 236 million Spotify subscribers who use the service on an ad-supported basis. He estimated that Amazon Music had 70 million subscribers at the end of 2021, including 50 million subscribers for YouTube Music.
Apple’s gaming business is smaller and newer; the company’s Apple Arcade mobile game subscription service was launched in 2019. Chatterjee estimated the size of the global games market to be $360 billion by 2028, of which about $200 billion will be on mobile devices. He finds Apple’s gaming service compelling, with more than 200 titles among many titles, and no ads or app fees, for just $5 a month. He thinks Apple’s gaming business can hit $1.2 billion in revenue by 2025, up from around $270 million in 2021. That’s strong growth, but hardly a rounding error. across all of Apple’s service businesses.
Chatterjee maintained his overweight rating and $200 price target on Apple stock. The stock was down 2% on Monday at $134.41.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]